International Energy Outlook 2013

International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040
July 2013

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Contents

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Highlights

  • World economic background
  • World energy markets by fuel type
  • World delivered energy use by sector
  • World carbon dioxide emissions

World energy demand and economic outlook

  • Overview
  • Outlook for world energy consumption by energy source
  • Delivered energy consumption by end-use sector
  • World economic outlook
  • Sensitivity analyses in IEO2013

World petroleum and other liquid fuels

  • Overview
  • Crude oil prices
  • World liquids consumption
  • World liquids production
  • World oil reserves

Natural gas

  • Overview
  • World natural gas consumption
  • World natural gas production
  • World natural gas trade

Coal

  • Overview
  • World coal consumption
  • World coal production
  • World coal trade
  • World coal reserves

Electricity

  • Overview
  • Electricity generation by source
  • Regional electricity markets: non-OECD

Buildings sector energy consumption

  • Overview
  • Residential energy consumption
  • Commercial energy consumption

Industrial sector energy consumption

  • Overview
  • Energy-intensive industries
  • Regional industrial energy outlooks

Transportation sector energy consumption

  • Overview
  • OECD countries
  • Non-OECD countries

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions

  • Overview
  • Emissions by fuel
  • Emissions by region
  • The Kaya decomposition of emissions trends

Data Sources

Appendixes

  • A. Reference case projections
  • B. High Economic Growth case projections
  • C. Low Economic Growth case projections
  • D. High Oil Price case projections
  • E. Low Oil Price case projections
  • F. Reference case projections by end-use sector and country grouping
  • G. Projections of petroleum and other liquids production in three cases
  • H. Reference case projections for electricity capacity and generation by fuel
  • I. Reference case projections for natural gas production
  • J. Kaya Identity factor projections
  • K. Comparisons with International Energy Agency and IEO2011 projections
  • L. Models used to generate the IEO2013 projections
  • M. Regional definitions

Tables
World energy demand and economic outlook

  • 1. World energy consumption by country grouping, 2010-2040
  • 2. World gross domestic product by country grouping, 2010-2040

World petroleum and other liquid fuels

  • 3. World liquid fuels production in the Reference case, 2010‑2040
  • 4. Brent crude oil prices in three cases, 2010‑2040
  • 5. Liquid fuels production in Middle East OPEC in four Reference case scenarios, 2011 and 2040
  • 6. World proved oil reserves by country as of January 1, 2013

Natural gas

  • 7. World natural gas production by region and country in the Reference case, 2010-2040
  • 8. Selected LNG liquefaction projects existing and under construction
  • 9. World proved natural gas reserves by country as of January 1, 2013

Coal

  • 10. World coal production by region, 2010-2040
  • 11. World coal flows by importing and exporting regions, Reference case, 2011, 2020, and 2040
  • 12. World recoverable coal reserves as of January 1, 2009

Electricity

  • 13. OECD and non-OECD net electricity generation by energy source, 2010-2040
  • 14. OECD and non-OECD net renewable electricity generation by energy source, 2010-2040

Buildings sector energy consumption

  • 15. Residential sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 16. Per capita residential sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 17. Commercial sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040

Industrial sector energy consumption

  • 18. World industrial sector delivered energy consumption by region and energy source, 2010-2040

Transportation sector energy consumption

  • 19. World transportation sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions

  • 20. OECD and non-OECD energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type, 1990-2040
  • 21. World carbon dioxide emissions by region and country in the Reference case, 1990-2040
  • 22. Average annual changes in Kaya factors by region and country in the Reference case, 2010-2040

Figures
Highlights

  • 1. World energy consumption, 1990-2040
  • 2. World energy consumption by fuel type, 1990‑2040
  • 3. World petroleum and other liquids production, 2010‑2040
  • 4. World increase in natural gas production by country grouping, 2010-2040
  • 5. World coal consumption by country grouping, 2010‑2040
  • 6. World net electricity generation by energy source, 2010-2040
  • 7. World operating nuclear power generation capacity by country grouping, 2010 and 2040
  • 8. World industrial sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040
  • 9. World transportation sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040
  • 10. World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type, 1990-2040
  • 11. OECD and non-OECD carbon intensities, 1990-2040

World energy demand and economic outlook

  • 12. World total energy consumption, 1990-2040
  • 13. Energy consumption in the United States, China, and India, 1990-2040
  • 14. World energy consumption, 1990-2040
  • 15. Non-OECD energy consumption by country grouping, 1990‑2040
  • 16. World energy consumption by fuel type, 1990‑2040
  • 17. World natural gas consumption by end-use sector, 2010-2040
  • 18. World net electricity generation by energy source, 2010-2040
  • 19. World electricity generation from renewable energy sources, 2010 and 2040
  • 20. World nuclear electricity generation capacity, 2010, 2020, and 2040
  • 21. World residential sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040
  • 22. World commercial sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040
  • 23. World industrial sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040
  • 24. World transportation sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040
  • 25. World total gross domestic product, 1990-2040
  • 26. OECD real gross domestic product growth rates, 2010-2040
  • 27. Non-OECD real gross domestic product growth rates, 2010-2040
  • 28. World energy consumption in three economic growth cases, 2010 and 2040

World petroleum and other liquid fuels

  • 29. Change in world liquids consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 30. World liquid fuels production by region and type, 1990-2040
  • 31. Non-OPEC liquids production by region and country, 2010 and 2040
  • 32. World nonpetroleum liquids production by type, 2010 and 2040
  • 33. World oil prices in three cases, 1990-2040
  • 34. World liquids consumption in three oil price cases, 2010 and 2040
  • 35. World liquid fuels production by region and type in three oil price cases, 2010 and 2040
  • 36. OECD and non-OECD liquids consumption by region, 1990-2040
  • 37. Change in world liquids production and consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 38. OECD and non-OECD Americas net imports and exports of liquid fuels, 2010-2040
  • 39. OPEC Middle East liquids production by country grouping in the IEO2013 Reference case, 2010-2040

Natural gas

  • 40. World natural gas consumption, 2010-2040
  • 41. World increase in natural gas production by country grouping, 2010-2040
  • 42. Natural gas production in China, Canada, and the United States, 2010 and 2040
  • 43. OECD Americas natural gas consumption by country, 2010-2040
  • 44. OECD Americas change in natural gas consumption by country and sector, 2010-2040
  • 45. OECD Europe natural gas consumption by end-use sector, 2010-2040
  • 46. OECD Asia natural gas consumption by country and end-use sector, 2010-2040
  • 47. Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia natural gas consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 48. Non-OECD Asia natural gas consumption by country, 2010-2040
  • 49. Middle East natural gas consumption by end-use sector, 2010-2040
  • 50. Africa natural gas consumption by end-use sector, 2010‑2040
  • 51. Central and South America natural gas consumption by end-use sector, 2010-2040
  • 52. OECD natural gas production by country, 1990-2040
  • 53. OECD Europe natural gas production, 1990-2040
  • 54. Middle East natural gas production, 1990-2040
  • 55. Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia natural gas production, 1990-2040
  • 56. Africa natural gas production, 1990-2040
  • 57. Non-OECD Asia natural gas production, 1990‑2040
  • 58. China natural gas production, 2010-2040
  • 59. Non-OECD Central and South America natural gas production, 1990‑2040
  • 60. OECD Americas net natural gas trade, 1990-2040
  • 61. United States and Canada net natural gas trade, 2010-2040
  • 62. OECD Asia net natural gas trade, 1990-2040
  • 63. Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia net natural gas trade, 1990-2040
  • 64. Middle East net natural gas trade, 1990-2040
  • 65. Africa net natural gas trade, 1990-2040
  • 66. Non-OECD Asia net natural gas trade, 1990-2040
  • 67. Non-OECD Central and South America net natural gas trade, 2010-2040
  • 68. World proved natural gas reserves by region, 1980-2013
  • 69. World proved natural gas reserves by geographic region as of January 1, 2013

Coal

  • 70. World coal consumption by region, 1980-2040
  • 71. World coal consumption by leading consuming countries, 2010-2040
  • 72. Coal share of world energy consumption by sector, 2010, 2020, and 2040
  • 73. World coal production, 2010-2040
  • 74. OECD coal consumption by region, 1980, 2010, 2020, and 2040
  • 75. Non-OECD coal consumption by region, 1980, 2010, 2020, and 2040
  • 76. China coal consumption by sector and total compared with U.S. total coal consumption, 2010, 2020, and 2040
  • 77. Coal share of China’s energy consumption, 2010, 2020, and 2040
  • 78. World coal imports by major importing region, 1995-2040
  • 79. Coal imports to Asia by region, 2011 and 2040

Electricity

  • 80. Growth in world total electricity generation and total delivered energy consumption, 1990-2040
  • 81. OECD and non-OECD net electricity generation, 1990-2040
  • 82. Non-OECD net electricity generation by region, 1990-2040
  • 83. World net electricity generation by fuel, 2010-2040
  • 84. World net electricity generation from nuclear power by region, 2010-2040
  • 85. OECD Americas net electricity generation by country, 2010-2040
  • 86. OECD Americas net electricity generation by fuel, 2010 and 2040
  • 87. OECD Europe net electricity generation by fuel, 2010-2040
  • 88. OECD Asia net electricity generation by country, 2010-2040
  • 89. Gross electricity generation by Japan’s ten general electric utilities, April-December 2010, 2011, and 2012
  • 90. Total net electricity generation in Japan by fuel, 2010-2040
  • 91. Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia net electricity generation by region, 2010-2040
  • 92. Non-OECD Asia net electricity generation by fuel, 2010-2040
  • 93. Middle East net electricity generation by fuel, 2010-2040
  • 94. Africa net electricity generation by fuel, 2010-20405
  • 95. Brazil and Other Central and South America net electricity generation, 2010-2040
  • 96. Brazil net electricity generation by fuel, 2010-2040

Buildings sector energy consumption

  • 97. World buildings sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040
  • 98. World residential sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010-2040
  • 99. Average annual change in OECD residential sector energy consumption, 2010-2040
  • 100. OECD Americas residential sector delivered energy consumption by country, 2010 and 2040
  • 101. OECD Europe residential sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010-2040
  • 102. OECD Asia residential sector delivered energy consumption by country, 2010-2040
  • 103. Non-OECD residential sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 104. Average annual change in non-OECD residential sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 105. Non-OECD Asia residential sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 106. Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia residential sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 107. Central and South America residential sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 108. World commercial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010-2040
  • 109. OECD Americas commercial sector delivered energy consumption by country, 2010 and 2040
  • 110. OECD Europe commercial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010-2040
  • 111. OECD Asia commercial sector delivered energy consumption by country, 2010-2040
  • 112. Non-OECD Asia commercial sector delivered energy consumption by country, 2010-2040
  • 113. Russia commercial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010-2040
  • 114. Middle East commercial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010-2040
  • 115. Central and South America commercial sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040

Industrial sector energy consumption

  • 116. World industrial sector and all other delivered end-use energy consumption, 2005-2040
  • 117. OECD and non-OECD industrial sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040
  • 118. World industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010 and 2040
  • 119. OECD industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010 and 2040
  • 120. Non-OECD industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010 and 2040
  • 121. Shares of total world industrial sector delivered energy consumption by major energy-intensive industries, 2010
  • 122. OECD and non-OECD steel production by major producing countries, 2011
  • 123. U.S. industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010 and 2040
  • 124. Mexico and Chile industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010 and 2040
  • 125. China industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010 and 2040
  • 126. India industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010 and 2040
  • 127. Brazil industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010 and 2040
  • 128. Middle East industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010 and 2040

Transportation sector energy consumption

  • 129. World liquids consumption by end-use sector, 2010-2040
  • 130. Transportation sector energy consumption per person in selected regions, 2010 and 2040
  • 131. World transportation sector liquids consumption, 2010-2040
  • 132. OECD transportation sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 133. OECD Americas transportation sector delivered energy consumption by country, 2010 and 2040
  • 134. OECD Asia transportation sector delivered energy consumption by country, 2010 and 2040
  • 135. Non-OECD transportation sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 136. Non-OECD Asia transportation sector delivered energy consumption by country, 2010-2040
  • 137. Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia transportation sector delivered energy consumption by country, 2010-2040
  • 138. Non-OECD Middle East and Africa transportation sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 139. Non-OECD Central and South America transportation sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions

  • 140. World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, 1990-2040
  • 141. World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type, 1990-2040
  • 142. OECD and non-OECD energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type, 1990-2040
  • 143. Japan projected energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type, 2015-2035, in the IEO2011 and IEO2013 Reference cases
  • 144. Average annual increases in OECD energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by region, 2010-2040 (percent per year)
  • 145. Average annual increases in non-OECD energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by region, 2010-2040 (percent per year)
  • 146. Increases in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type for non-OECD regions with the largest increases, 2010-2040
  • 147. OECD and non-OECD energy intensity and carbon intensity, 1990-2040
  • 148. OECD and non-OECD carbon intensities, 1990-2040
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EIA – PDF – [312 Seiten]


REZESSION: Chinas Trittbrett wird morsch

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Australien droht nach 21 Jahren wieder eine Rezession. Kanada fürchtet um seine Rohstoffexporte. Mit ihren Lieferungen haben beide Länder Chinas Boom befeuert. Jetzt flaut die Turbokonjunktur im Reich der Mitte ab. Der Trittbrett-Ritt könnte zum Fluch werden – auch für Europa.
ManagerMagazin
Anmerkung
Neben zahlreichen weiteren negativen Einflüsssen, wird sowohl der Machtwechsel der politischen Führung in China, als auch die nachhaltig wachsende Konkurrenz des Drachen auf dem afrikanischen Kontinent schon recht bald stärker in den Focus rücken.

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Rohstoffe werden für Unternehmen zur Kostenfalle

Rohstoffe werden für Unternehmen zur Kostenfalle

Die Unternehmen leiden unter den steigenden Preisen – fast mehr als unter der europäischen Finanzkrise. Rohstoffe sind deutlich teurer als vor zehn Jahren. Besonders beim Einkauf haben die Unternehmen Defizite.

Handelsblatt – 23.08.2012, 06:44


„Rüstung, Kohle, Atom, Agrarspekulationen“

„Rüstung, Kohle, Atom, Agrarspekulationen“

Kurz vor dem Abtritt von Deutsche-Bank-Chef Josef Ackermann haben Kritiker eine vernichtende Bilanz seines zehnjährigen Wirkens gezogen. „Ackermann hat in seiner Amtszeit viel geackert, aber er hat das erklärte Ziel, ein intaktes Haus zu hinterlassen, verfehlt“, urteilte Barbara Happe von der Initiative „Andere Banken braucht das Land“ am Dienstag in Berlin.
[…]

Ackermann hatte wiederholt betont:

„Kein Geschäft ist es wert, den guten Ruf der Deutschen Bank aufs Spiel zu setzen.“

Wiener Zeitung

Wer’s glaubt …

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