International Energy Outlook 2013

International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040
July 2013

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Fulminante Quelle zum Fakten-Check !

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Contents

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Highlights

  • World economic background
  • World energy markets by fuel type
  • World delivered energy use by sector
  • World carbon dioxide emissions

World energy demand and economic outlook

  • Overview
  • Outlook for world energy consumption by energy source
  • Delivered energy consumption by end-use sector
  • World economic outlook
  • Sensitivity analyses in IEO2013

World petroleum and other liquid fuels

  • Overview
  • Crude oil prices
  • World liquids consumption
  • World liquids production
  • World oil reserves

Natural gas

  • Overview
  • World natural gas consumption
  • World natural gas production
  • World natural gas trade

Coal

  • Overview
  • World coal consumption
  • World coal production
  • World coal trade
  • World coal reserves

Electricity

  • Overview
  • Electricity generation by source
  • Regional electricity markets: non-OECD

Buildings sector energy consumption

  • Overview
  • Residential energy consumption
  • Commercial energy consumption

Industrial sector energy consumption

  • Overview
  • Energy-intensive industries
  • Regional industrial energy outlooks

Transportation sector energy consumption

  • Overview
  • OECD countries
  • Non-OECD countries

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions

  • Overview
  • Emissions by fuel
  • Emissions by region
  • The Kaya decomposition of emissions trends

Data Sources

Appendixes

  • A. Reference case projections
  • B. High Economic Growth case projections
  • C. Low Economic Growth case projections
  • D. High Oil Price case projections
  • E. Low Oil Price case projections
  • F. Reference case projections by end-use sector and country grouping
  • G. Projections of petroleum and other liquids production in three cases
  • H. Reference case projections for electricity capacity and generation by fuel
  • I. Reference case projections for natural gas production
  • J. Kaya Identity factor projections
  • K. Comparisons with International Energy Agency and IEO2011 projections
  • L. Models used to generate the IEO2013 projections
  • M. Regional definitions

Tables
World energy demand and economic outlook

  • 1. World energy consumption by country grouping, 2010-2040
  • 2. World gross domestic product by country grouping, 2010-2040

World petroleum and other liquid fuels

  • 3. World liquid fuels production in the Reference case, 2010‑2040
  • 4. Brent crude oil prices in three cases, 2010‑2040
  • 5. Liquid fuels production in Middle East OPEC in four Reference case scenarios, 2011 and 2040
  • 6. World proved oil reserves by country as of January 1, 2013

Natural gas

  • 7. World natural gas production by region and country in the Reference case, 2010-2040
  • 8. Selected LNG liquefaction projects existing and under construction
  • 9. World proved natural gas reserves by country as of January 1, 2013

Coal

  • 10. World coal production by region, 2010-2040
  • 11. World coal flows by importing and exporting regions, Reference case, 2011, 2020, and 2040
  • 12. World recoverable coal reserves as of January 1, 2009

Electricity

  • 13. OECD and non-OECD net electricity generation by energy source, 2010-2040
  • 14. OECD and non-OECD net renewable electricity generation by energy source, 2010-2040

Buildings sector energy consumption

  • 15. Residential sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 16. Per capita residential sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 17. Commercial sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040

Industrial sector energy consumption

  • 18. World industrial sector delivered energy consumption by region and energy source, 2010-2040

Transportation sector energy consumption

  • 19. World transportation sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions

  • 20. OECD and non-OECD energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type, 1990-2040
  • 21. World carbon dioxide emissions by region and country in the Reference case, 1990-2040
  • 22. Average annual changes in Kaya factors by region and country in the Reference case, 2010-2040

Figures
Highlights

  • 1. World energy consumption, 1990-2040
  • 2. World energy consumption by fuel type, 1990‑2040
  • 3. World petroleum and other liquids production, 2010‑2040
  • 4. World increase in natural gas production by country grouping, 2010-2040
  • 5. World coal consumption by country grouping, 2010‑2040
  • 6. World net electricity generation by energy source, 2010-2040
  • 7. World operating nuclear power generation capacity by country grouping, 2010 and 2040
  • 8. World industrial sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040
  • 9. World transportation sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040
  • 10. World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type, 1990-2040
  • 11. OECD and non-OECD carbon intensities, 1990-2040

World energy demand and economic outlook

  • 12. World total energy consumption, 1990-2040
  • 13. Energy consumption in the United States, China, and India, 1990-2040
  • 14. World energy consumption, 1990-2040
  • 15. Non-OECD energy consumption by country grouping, 1990‑2040
  • 16. World energy consumption by fuel type, 1990‑2040
  • 17. World natural gas consumption by end-use sector, 2010-2040
  • 18. World net electricity generation by energy source, 2010-2040
  • 19. World electricity generation from renewable energy sources, 2010 and 2040
  • 20. World nuclear electricity generation capacity, 2010, 2020, and 2040
  • 21. World residential sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040
  • 22. World commercial sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040
  • 23. World industrial sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040
  • 24. World transportation sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040
  • 25. World total gross domestic product, 1990-2040
  • 26. OECD real gross domestic product growth rates, 2010-2040
  • 27. Non-OECD real gross domestic product growth rates, 2010-2040
  • 28. World energy consumption in three economic growth cases, 2010 and 2040

World petroleum and other liquid fuels

  • 29. Change in world liquids consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 30. World liquid fuels production by region and type, 1990-2040
  • 31. Non-OPEC liquids production by region and country, 2010 and 2040
  • 32. World nonpetroleum liquids production by type, 2010 and 2040
  • 33. World oil prices in three cases, 1990-2040
  • 34. World liquids consumption in three oil price cases, 2010 and 2040
  • 35. World liquid fuels production by region and type in three oil price cases, 2010 and 2040
  • 36. OECD and non-OECD liquids consumption by region, 1990-2040
  • 37. Change in world liquids production and consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 38. OECD and non-OECD Americas net imports and exports of liquid fuels, 2010-2040
  • 39. OPEC Middle East liquids production by country grouping in the IEO2013 Reference case, 2010-2040

Natural gas

  • 40. World natural gas consumption, 2010-2040
  • 41. World increase in natural gas production by country grouping, 2010-2040
  • 42. Natural gas production in China, Canada, and the United States, 2010 and 2040
  • 43. OECD Americas natural gas consumption by country, 2010-2040
  • 44. OECD Americas change in natural gas consumption by country and sector, 2010-2040
  • 45. OECD Europe natural gas consumption by end-use sector, 2010-2040
  • 46. OECD Asia natural gas consumption by country and end-use sector, 2010-2040
  • 47. Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia natural gas consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 48. Non-OECD Asia natural gas consumption by country, 2010-2040
  • 49. Middle East natural gas consumption by end-use sector, 2010-2040
  • 50. Africa natural gas consumption by end-use sector, 2010‑2040
  • 51. Central and South America natural gas consumption by end-use sector, 2010-2040
  • 52. OECD natural gas production by country, 1990-2040
  • 53. OECD Europe natural gas production, 1990-2040
  • 54. Middle East natural gas production, 1990-2040
  • 55. Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia natural gas production, 1990-2040
  • 56. Africa natural gas production, 1990-2040
  • 57. Non-OECD Asia natural gas production, 1990‑2040
  • 58. China natural gas production, 2010-2040
  • 59. Non-OECD Central and South America natural gas production, 1990‑2040
  • 60. OECD Americas net natural gas trade, 1990-2040
  • 61. United States and Canada net natural gas trade, 2010-2040
  • 62. OECD Asia net natural gas trade, 1990-2040
  • 63. Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia net natural gas trade, 1990-2040
  • 64. Middle East net natural gas trade, 1990-2040
  • 65. Africa net natural gas trade, 1990-2040
  • 66. Non-OECD Asia net natural gas trade, 1990-2040
  • 67. Non-OECD Central and South America net natural gas trade, 2010-2040
  • 68. World proved natural gas reserves by region, 1980-2013
  • 69. World proved natural gas reserves by geographic region as of January 1, 2013

Coal

  • 70. World coal consumption by region, 1980-2040
  • 71. World coal consumption by leading consuming countries, 2010-2040
  • 72. Coal share of world energy consumption by sector, 2010, 2020, and 2040
  • 73. World coal production, 2010-2040
  • 74. OECD coal consumption by region, 1980, 2010, 2020, and 2040
  • 75. Non-OECD coal consumption by region, 1980, 2010, 2020, and 2040
  • 76. China coal consumption by sector and total compared with U.S. total coal consumption, 2010, 2020, and 2040
  • 77. Coal share of China’s energy consumption, 2010, 2020, and 2040
  • 78. World coal imports by major importing region, 1995-2040
  • 79. Coal imports to Asia by region, 2011 and 2040

Electricity

  • 80. Growth in world total electricity generation and total delivered energy consumption, 1990-2040
  • 81. OECD and non-OECD net electricity generation, 1990-2040
  • 82. Non-OECD net electricity generation by region, 1990-2040
  • 83. World net electricity generation by fuel, 2010-2040
  • 84. World net electricity generation from nuclear power by region, 2010-2040
  • 85. OECD Americas net electricity generation by country, 2010-2040
  • 86. OECD Americas net electricity generation by fuel, 2010 and 2040
  • 87. OECD Europe net electricity generation by fuel, 2010-2040
  • 88. OECD Asia net electricity generation by country, 2010-2040
  • 89. Gross electricity generation by Japan’s ten general electric utilities, April-December 2010, 2011, and 2012
  • 90. Total net electricity generation in Japan by fuel, 2010-2040
  • 91. Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia net electricity generation by region, 2010-2040
  • 92. Non-OECD Asia net electricity generation by fuel, 2010-2040
  • 93. Middle East net electricity generation by fuel, 2010-2040
  • 94. Africa net electricity generation by fuel, 2010-20405
  • 95. Brazil and Other Central and South America net electricity generation, 2010-2040
  • 96. Brazil net electricity generation by fuel, 2010-2040

Buildings sector energy consumption

  • 97. World buildings sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040
  • 98. World residential sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010-2040
  • 99. Average annual change in OECD residential sector energy consumption, 2010-2040
  • 100. OECD Americas residential sector delivered energy consumption by country, 2010 and 2040
  • 101. OECD Europe residential sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010-2040
  • 102. OECD Asia residential sector delivered energy consumption by country, 2010-2040
  • 103. Non-OECD residential sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 104. Average annual change in non-OECD residential sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 105. Non-OECD Asia residential sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 106. Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia residential sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 107. Central and South America residential sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 108. World commercial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010-2040
  • 109. OECD Americas commercial sector delivered energy consumption by country, 2010 and 2040
  • 110. OECD Europe commercial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010-2040
  • 111. OECD Asia commercial sector delivered energy consumption by country, 2010-2040
  • 112. Non-OECD Asia commercial sector delivered energy consumption by country, 2010-2040
  • 113. Russia commercial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010-2040
  • 114. Middle East commercial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010-2040
  • 115. Central and South America commercial sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040

Industrial sector energy consumption

  • 116. World industrial sector and all other delivered end-use energy consumption, 2005-2040
  • 117. OECD and non-OECD industrial sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040
  • 118. World industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010 and 2040
  • 119. OECD industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010 and 2040
  • 120. Non-OECD industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010 and 2040
  • 121. Shares of total world industrial sector delivered energy consumption by major energy-intensive industries, 2010
  • 122. OECD and non-OECD steel production by major producing countries, 2011
  • 123. U.S. industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010 and 2040
  • 124. Mexico and Chile industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010 and 2040
  • 125. China industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010 and 2040
  • 126. India industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010 and 2040
  • 127. Brazil industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010 and 2040
  • 128. Middle East industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010 and 2040

Transportation sector energy consumption

  • 129. World liquids consumption by end-use sector, 2010-2040
  • 130. Transportation sector energy consumption per person in selected regions, 2010 and 2040
  • 131. World transportation sector liquids consumption, 2010-2040
  • 132. OECD transportation sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 133. OECD Americas transportation sector delivered energy consumption by country, 2010 and 2040
  • 134. OECD Asia transportation sector delivered energy consumption by country, 2010 and 2040
  • 135. Non-OECD transportation sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 136. Non-OECD Asia transportation sector delivered energy consumption by country, 2010-2040
  • 137. Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia transportation sector delivered energy consumption by country, 2010-2040
  • 138. Non-OECD Middle East and Africa transportation sector delivered energy consumption by region, 2010-2040
  • 139. Non-OECD Central and South America transportation sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions

  • 140. World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, 1990-2040
  • 141. World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type, 1990-2040
  • 142. OECD and non-OECD energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type, 1990-2040
  • 143. Japan projected energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type, 2015-2035, in the IEO2011 and IEO2013 Reference cases
  • 144. Average annual increases in OECD energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by region, 2010-2040 (percent per year)
  • 145. Average annual increases in non-OECD energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by region, 2010-2040 (percent per year)
  • 146. Increases in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type for non-OECD regions with the largest increases, 2010-2040
  • 147. OECD and non-OECD energy intensity and carbon intensity, 1990-2040
  • 148. OECD and non-OECD carbon intensities, 1990-2040
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EIA – PDF – [312 Seiten]


Schicksalswahl in Zypern?

Probleme und Grauzonen

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Wahlen in Zypern?
Davon nahm früher im Ausland kaum jemand Notiz. Diesmal ist das anders.
Mehr als eine halbe Millionen Bürger sind aufgerufen, über einen neuen Präsidenten abzustimmen. Als Favorit gilt der Anführer der größten konservativen Oppositionspartei, Nikos Anastasiades. Zypern steckt in einer schweren Finanzkrise, die Staatskassen sind leer, es droht der Staatsbankrott. Und vom Ausgang der Wahl hängt auch ab, ob EU und Internationaler Währungsfonds Finanzhilfen gewähren.
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Ihr Oeconomicus

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follow-up, 17.02.2013, 20:50h:
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Zypern-Wahl geht in die zweite Runde
Über den neuen Präsidenten Zyperns wird in einer Stichwahl entschieden. Wie die Wahlbehörden nach Auszählung von 99 Prozent der Stimmen mitteilten, erreichte der konservative Politiker Nikos Anastasiades bei der Abstimmung 45 Prozent der Stimmen. Auf dem zweiten Platz landete demnach der ehemalige Gesundheitsminister Stavros Malas mit 27 Prozent.
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Die Stichwahl findet am 24. Februar statt. Auf Zypern wird der Präsident direkt vom Volk gewählt. Er bestimmt und führt die Regierung.
tagesschau.de
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weitere Informationen
Handelsblatt
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Eurogruppe: Neuer Druck auf Zypern
Die Schuldenkrise ist zurück an den Märkten. Die Unsicherheit war zuletzt regelrecht greifbar. Vor allem die Sorgenkinder Spanien und Italien belasten. Große Probleme gibt es aber auch in kleinen Ländern. Zum Beispiel in Zypern. Das Land braucht dringend Geld. Allerdings sitzen bei der Eurogruppe die Milliarden nicht ganz so locker wie wohl erhofft.
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Zypern: Hilfe für Steuerparadies?
Mit dem „Zypernmodell“ könne wohlhabende Deutsche ganz legal Steuern vermeiden. Aber jetzt steht der Inselstaat kurz vor der Pleite – und dafür zahlen wiederum die braven deutschen Steuerzahler.
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Zypern: Steueroase und Pleiteinsel
Zypern hat Finanzhilfen bei der EU beantragt. Damit sollen indirekt die europäischen Steuerzahler ausgerechnet den Staat retten, der für viele Steuerflüchtlinge schon seit Jahren eine Steueroase ist.
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Zypern: regungslos im Sog der Krise
In keinem anderen Staat in der Eurozone sind private Haushalte so verschuldet wie in der Republik Zypern. Immer mehr Familien stehen vor der Insolvenz. Bereits Mitte des Jahres hatte Zypern um ein Rettungspaket gebeten. Im Gegenzug forderte die Troika aus EU-Kommission, Europäischer Zentralbank und IWF harte Sparmaßnahmen. Doch im Februar sind Präsidentenwahlen und nun zögert die Regierung Reformen hinaus.
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Zypern: Die Russen übernehmen
Zehntausende Russen haben sich auf Zypern niedergelassen. Und Moskau päppelt die angeschlagene zyprische Wirtschaft mit Milliarden-Darlehen. In der EU erregt das Misstrauen. Dass Zypern sozusagen unter den russischen Rettungsschirm geschlüpft ist, wird in Brüssel nicht gerne gesehen. Präsident Christofias unterlässt alles, was den Ärger Moskaus erregen könnte. Russland soll über Zypern einen florierenden Waffenhandel mit dem Nahen Osten betreiben. Die Zyprer selbst leiden vor allem unter drastisch gestiegenen Preisen – eine Folge des steten Geldzuflusses aus Russland.
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„Truthland“ … ökologische Paradiesverkündung der Täuscher ?

ökologische Paradiesverkündung

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Schematische Darstellung einer Bohrung mit potentiellen Risiken für die Umwelt

Bildrechte: CC, Urheber: Mikenorton

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Gäbe es für das Fach ’semantische Ökologie‘ einen Nobelpreis, die Paradiesverkünder des „Naturschutz-Konzerns“ Exxon würden für eine solche Auszeichnung vermutlich die besten Voraussetzungen mitbringen!
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Warum?
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1. Mit ihrem Umweltschutz-Slogan „Protect Tomorrow“ setzt sich das Unternehmen ausweislich an die Spitze der Bewegung besorgter Bürgerinitiativen, die nicht müde werden, auf die Umwelt-Risiken der Erdgasgewinnung durch Fracking-Technologien hinzuweisen!
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2. Mit einem eigens konzipierten Web-Auftritt hilft der Konzern technisch weniger versierten Stammtischen und Anti-Fracking-Bewegungen apokalyptische Szenen aus der vielbeachteten Doku „Gas-Fieber“ in den Bereich der Mythen einzuordnen!
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3. Hat man mit „Truthland“ einen eigenen Youtube-Kanal eingerichtet, in dessen Beiträgen den Behauptungen aus der Gas-Fieber-Doku nach „objektiven“ Gesichtspunkten nachgegangen wird.
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4. Last but not least unterstützt das Unternehmen richtungsweisende Gesetzgebungs-Vorhaben bürgernaher Ministerien unter Leitung der Naturschutz-Granden Philipp Rösler und Peter Altmaier, welche im Bundesrat erhebliche Bedenken ausgelöst haben sollen.
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Fazit:
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Ist es nicht beruhigend, dass wir nun völlig entspannt in den Exxon-Kanon „Erdgas: Versorgung braucht Verantwortung!“ einstimmen dürfen?
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Ihr Oeconomicus

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vertiefende Archiv-Beiträge zum Thema Fracking
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ergänzende Informationen

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Schiefergas made in Germany: Das Märchen von der deutschen Erdgas-Bonanza
Amerikas Schiefergas-Rausch nährt auch in Deutschland den Traum von billiger Energie. Heimischer Brennstoff könnte die Stromkosten der Industrie senken und nebenbei die Energiewende retten, verheißen Konzerne wie Exxon. Doch in der Fachwelt glaubt daran fast niemand.
SpOn
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Fakten und Hintergründe zum Thema Fracking
Dialog Erdgas und Fracking
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Wir wollen kein Fracking in unserer Region!
Eine kanadische Firma möchte in Thüringen und ganz Deutschland Erdgas fördern. Dazu soll eine fragwürdige Methode angewendet werden: Fracking!
kein-fracking.de
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