Martin Feldstein: Wird der Euro die aktuelle Krise überleben?
Veröffentlicht: 31. Dezember 2008 Abgelegt unter: Euro- und Finanzkrise, Martin Feldstein | Tags: European Economic and Monetary Union, EZB, Inflation Hinterlasse einen KommentarWill the Euro Survive the Current Crisis?
by Martin S. Feldstein – National Bureau for Economic Research
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The European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the euro are about to celebrate their tenth anniversary. The euro was introduced without serious problems and has since functioned well, with the European Central Bank delivering the low inflation that is its sole mandate.
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But the current economic crisis may provide a severe test of the euro’s ability to survive in more troubled times. While the crisis could strengthen the institutions provided by the EMU, it could also create multiple risks, of which member countries need to be aware if they want to avoid them.
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The primary problem is that conditions in individual EMU members may develop in such different ways that some national political leaders could be tempted to conclude that their countries would be better served by adopting a mix of policies different from that of the other members. The current differences in the interest rates of euro-zone government bonds show that the financial markets regard a break-up as a real possibility. Ten-year government bonds in Greece and Ireland, for example, now pay nearly a full percentage point above the rate on comparable German bonds, and Italy’s rate is almost as high.
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Martin Feldstein – Project Syndicate
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Archiv-Beiträge zu Prof. Feldstein
The Political Economy of the European Economic and Monetary Union: Political Sources of an Economic Liability
Veröffentlicht: 1. September 1997 Abgelegt unter: Martin Feldstein | Tags: Europäische Währungsunion, European Economic and Monetary Union Hinterlasse einen KommentarThe Political Economy of the European Economic and Monetary Union:
Political Sources of an Economic Liability
by Martin Feldstein – National Bureau of Economic Research
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EMU would be an economic liability. A single currency would cause at most small trade and investment gains but would raise average cyclical unemployment and would probably raise inflation, perpetuate structural unemployment, and increase the risk of protectionism. EMU is nevertheless being pursued in order to create a political union. Fundamental disagreements among member states about economic policies, foreign and military policies, and the sharing of political power are likely to create future intra-European conflicts. A united Europe would be a formidable participant in the 21st century’s global balance of power, with uncertain consequences for world stability and peace.
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Martin Feldstein – PDF [34 pages]
Oeconomicus 