TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT, 2011


UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT – GENEVA

Contents

Explanatory notes
Abbreviations
OVERVIEW

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Chapter I

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Current Trends and Issues in the World Economy

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A. R ecent trends in the world economy
1. Global growth
2. International trade
3. Recent developments in commodity markets

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B. Incomes policies and the challenges ahead
1. The role of wages in economic growth
2. Incomes policy and inflation control
3. The E uropean crisis and the need for proactive incomes policies

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C. Progress towards global rebalancing, growth and development:
an assessment of global cooperation

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Notes
References

.

Chapter II

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Fiscal Aspects of the Financial Crisis and its Impact on Public Debt

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A. Introduction

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B. Fiscal aspects of the global crisis
1. Fiscal balances and global imbalances before the crisis
2. The evolution of fiscal accounts and the impact of the crisis
3. Fiscal responses to the crisis

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C. The evolution of public debt
1. Recent trends in public debt in developed and developing countries
2. The contribution of non-fiscal factors to debt crises

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D. Conclusions

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Notes
References

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Chapter III

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Fiscal Space, Debt Sustainability and Economic Growth

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A. Introduction

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B. Fiscal policy challenges
1. Exit strategies and the shift to fiscal tightening
2. Fiscal tightening without a previous stimulus: the rationale for procyclical fiscal policies
3. The special case of natural-resource-rich countries

.

C. Qualitative and quantitative aspects of fiscal space
1. A dynamic and comprehensive view of fiscal space
2. Interest rates and fiscal space
3. Functional finance and fiscal multipliers

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D. Dealing with public debt crises
1. Preventing debt crises
2. Responding to debt crises
3. Debt restructuring

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E. Conclusions: growing out of debt

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Notes
References

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Chapter IV

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Financial Re-Regulation and Restructuring

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A. Introduction

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B. What went wrong?
1. Creation of risk by the financial sector
2. Deregulation and shadow banking
3. The role of lender of last resort at stake

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C. Unresolved issues in financial regulation
1. Self-regulation and endogenous risk
2. Systemically important financial institutions
3. Volatility of capital flows and the need for capital controls
4. Liberalization of services and prudential regulation

.

D. The unfinished reform agenda and policy recommendations
1. Re-regulation and endogenous risk
2. Beyond re-regulation: towards a restructuring of the banking system
3. The need for a more balanced banking sector: public and cooperative banks
4. Building a firewall between commercial and investment banking

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Notes
References

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Chapter V

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Financialized Commodity Markets:

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Recent Developments and Policy Issues

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A. Introduction

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B. Trends and developments in financialized commodity markets

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C. Commodity price formation: the roles of information and herd behaviour
1. Information and uncertainty in commodity markets
2. Herd behaviour

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D. Financialized markets: overall impact on commodity price developments
1. Trader positions and commodity prices
2. Price effects of financial investors across different asset markets

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E. Policy considerations and recommendations
1. Improving transparency in physical commodity markets
2. Improving transparency in commodity futures exchanges and O TC markets
3. Tighter regulation of financial investors
4. Schemes for dealing with speculative bubbles

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Notes
References

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Annex to chapter V

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Reform of Commodity Derivatives Market Regulations

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Chapter VI

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The Global Monetary Order and the International Trading System

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A. Introduction

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B. New thinking on global economic governance

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C. Destabilizing private capital flows: back to business as usual
1. Appetite for risk and carry-trade speculation
2. The Japanese yen and the United States dollar as funding currencies
3. The cost of leaning against the wind of appreciation

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D. Real exchange rate misalignment in the European Economic and Monetary Union

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E. Rules-based managed floating as a possible solution
1. Flexibility of the nominal exchange rate
2. Towards greater stability of the real exchange rate
3. Exchange rate adjustment according to uncovered interest rate parity

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F. Limitations and effectiveness of managed floating
1. Effectiveness of intervention in foreign exchange markets
2. The scope and cost of sterilization of foreign exchange market intervention

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G. International cooperation on exchange rate management

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H. Economic policy and the role of intervention

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Notes
References

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List of tables

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Table Page
List of boxes
Box Page

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1.1 World output growth, 2003–2011
1.2 Export and import volumes of goods, selected regions and countries, 2007–2010
1.3 World primary commodity prices, 2005–2011
1.4 Real wage growth, selected regions and economies, 2001–2010
2.1 Evolution of fiscal indicators, selected regions, 1997–2010
2.2 Fiscal stimulus packages, as announced in selected economies, 2008–2010

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List of boxes
3.1 Fiscal stimulus and crowding out
3.2 Fiscal multipliers
5.1 Views of commodity market participants: results of an UNCTAD survey
5.2 The interplay between physical and financial markets
5.3 Sources of information on commodity market fundamentals
6.1 Slovenia – a case of successful managed floating
6.2 Sterilized intervention and the balance sheet of the Chinese central bank

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List of charts
Chart Page
1.1 Real GDP at market prices, 2002–2011
1.2 World trade volume, January 2000–April 2011
1.3 Net barter terms of trade, 2000–2010
1.4 Monthly evolution of commodity prices, exchange rate and world industrial production, January 2002–May 2011
1.5 Share of wages in national income, selected economies, 1980–2010
1.6 Total wage bill and private consumption at constant prices, selected countries, 1996–2010
1.7 Current-account balances, selected countries and country groups, 2005–2011
1.8 Real effective exchange rate, selected countries, January 2000–May 2011

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2.1 Gross capital formation, current-account balance and national savings in selected countries, 1990–2010
2.2 Government revenues and expenditure and fiscal balance in selected regions, 1997–2010
2.3 Ratio of public debt to GDP in developing countries, by income group, 1970–2010
2.4 Ratio of total, domestic and external public debt to GDP in developing countries, 1970–2010
2.5 External debt in developing countries, by type of debt, 1970–2009
2.6 Contributions to growth of debt-to-GDP ratio, 1985–2004

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3.1 Relationship between public debt as a percentage of GDP and real long-term interest rates in Germany, Japan and the United States, 1981–2010
3.2 Comparison between forecasts of GDP growth, fiscal balances and current-account balances in IMF-sponsored programmes and actual values for selected countries
3.3 Real interest rate and real GDP growth, selected countries, 1991–2010

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5.1 Financial investment in commodities and equities as a share of global GDP, 1998–2010
5.2 Financial investment in commodities as a proportion of global oil production, 2001–2010
5.3 Different types of herd behaviour
5.4 Prices and net long financial positions, by trader category, selected commodities, June 2006–June 2011
5.5 Money manager positions and crude oil prices, January 2009–June 2011
5.6 Correlation between commodity and equity indexes, 1986–2011
5.7 Dynamics of world industrial production after the peaks of four business cycles
5.8 Evolution of commodity and equity prices before and after troughs of selected business cycles
5.9 Correlation between financial investments in commodities and selected exchange rates, January 1986–June 2011

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6.1 Short-term interest rate developments, January 1996–February 2011
6.2 Inflation and short-term interest rates in emerging market and transition economies, January 1996–February 2011
6.3 Changes in exchange rates and reserves, and net portfolio investments, third quarter 2005–third quarter 2010
6.4 Net private financial flows (excluding FDI): emerging market and developing economies, 1990–2010
6.5 Net positions of non-commercial traders on Australian dollar and Japanese yen futures, January 2005–April 2011
6.6 Carry-to-risk ratio, 2005–2010
6.7 Inflation differential and nominal and real exchange rates in Brazil, January 1996–February 2011
6.8 Unit labour costs and GDP deflator in E MU, 1999–2010
6.9 Current-account balances in E MU, 1991–2010
6.10 Evolution of CPI- and ULC-based real effective exchange rates, selected countries, 1991–2010
6.11 Exchange rates of selected currencies: actual values and simulated PPP and UIP paths

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Explanatory notes

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Abbreviations

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PDF – [224 pages]

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Auswahl von Unctad Flagship Reports



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